Deep dives into betting mathematics, probability theory, and the data science behind finding value.
Part 1 ended with a claim: the dual variables from your optimisation solver tell you where your system is bottlenecked. Constitution Hill's liquidity constraint had a shadow price of £0.09 per pound. ...
You have three edges on this Saturday's card. Frankel to win the 2:30 at 5% edge, Constitution Hill in the 3:15 at 12% edge, and Enable in the 4:00 at 3% edge. Your bankroll is £3,000. Liquidity caps ...
You look at a horse race on Betfair and see a column of decimal odds. Behind those numbers is a precise geometric structure — one that determines whether the market is fair, whether the bookmaker is t...
Every set of odds on Betfair describes a point in space. If that point is inside a particular shape — a polytope — the prices are consistent with reality. If the point is outside, someone is offering ...
In Part 1, we converted Betfair odds into implied probabilities and discovered that those probabilities live inside a triangle — the probability simplex. A bookmaker's overround pushes the point outsi...